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06.22.11
Stormy Weather
Executive Summary
Investorsare concerned about the fundamental level of economic health in the developed economies, particularly Europe and the U.S. Those concerns are reasonable, considering that these nations carry excessive debt burdens after a decade of financial irresponsibility.
Of much more import to resource investors, however, is the fact that China is slamming on the brakes in order to deflate a real estate bubble and moderate inflation. If China is unsuccessful in managing a soft landing, then the global resource sector will become a dangerous place to invest. We discuss the risks and rewards of this situation in detail below.

 

03.18.11
Crisis in Japan
Japan has a cultural imperative to ‘save face’ that creates a corresponding mendacity discount concerning reports on anything problematic. If the reactor cores at the Fukushima facility melt down, they could ignite and shoot large amounts of radioactive material into the atmosphere. It is a small world and part of it could get very radioactive. If Japan shuts down, the global economy shuts down. Consequently, we are adding two leveraged hedges to protect against the potential downside and we urge extreme caution. Do not buy any falling knives.
01.12.11
China's Resource War
There is an implicit war for global resources underway between China and the rest of the world. The latest campaign revolves around the acquisition and control of rare earth metals, which are needed by both the civilian and military economy. As China is the source of 97% of these 17 elements, a bill has been recently passed in the House of Representatives to re-start rare earth mining in the U.S. We expect the rare earth ‘craze’ to last quite a while.
11.11.10
Global Security Update Issue

Executive Summary
Sometime in 2011 the war in Afghanistan is likely to be suddenly over, but this will not be due to a military-style victory by NATO troops. Rather, meaningful negotiations between the Taliban and the U.S. are expected to start fairly soon. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, however, is transforming itself into a cargo bomb operation and we anticipate some fireworks before long. Lastly, wireless, roaming, video-toting home security robots are the new hot thing.

We recommend iRobot (IRBT) as a general robotics play. In addition, uranium miner Cameco (CCJ) looks like it is finally ready to start a major run higher. 

03.31.10
V-shaped recovery. Is that possible?

The current rally means the market is pricing in a normal V-shaped recovery. Is that possible? According to the ECRI, the answer is ‘Yes.’

03.25.10
Sell Notice

In the Short-Term Model we are selling all five positions SRS, FAZ, SSG, SMN, & BGZ
 

03.23.10
Hedge with inverse ETFs

A resumption of recessionary conditions would trigger a retest of the March 2009 lows in the major indices, which is what we want to hedge against with our inverse ETFs

03.02.10
Pick #5 reaches 9%

Pick #5 reaches 9% for the week. Consider selling if you have reached your threshhold.

02.26.10
Pick #5 reaches 5.5%.

Pick #5 reaches 5.5% for the week.

02.25.10
All 5 picks up today

All five of this week's picks are up an average of 2% today.