Articles

08.29.11

August has been a difficult month for the stock market with the major indices down double digits. Investors are pricing in a double dip recession in the U.S. and a commensurate stall in global growth. Despite rather benign economic conditions in China and elsewhere, the concept of decoupling between emerging economies and the developed nations is not yet in play. Because resource stocks are both cyclical and commodity-related, they will have the most volatility during such challenging times.

08.21.11

Resource plays in general and the energy sector in particular, are at the epicenter of the dislocation. We have witnessed 20-30% declines in many names over the past week. In some cases, the selling has erased most of our profits, while more recent purchases are underwater. Despite the unusually aggressive selling, we nevertheless take a contrary view and outline a number of reasons not to shrink back from the market in horror, but rather to stay the course and even consider additional buying of resource-related names at bargain prices.

07.26.11

For the next decade or two, resource investing is going to be a tale of two themes: the U.S. Dollar and China. The dollar is weakening this week as European diplomats begin to get serious about fixing the euro zone. A weaker dollar is good for the resource investor.

The Chinese economy is back on the market’s radar, however, after HSBC’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for July dropped below 50. The reading of 48.9 signals contraction. This was not entirely unexpected, however, as Chinese banks are obviously tapping on the brakes to control inflation and let some air out of the housing bubble.

07.12.11

As we noted in the last monthly issue, commodity prices are notoriously volatile (and cyclical). The cyclicality is driven by the business cycle, but is exaggerated by the leverage that is generally applied to the futures contracts by speculators. Accordingly, investing in commodity-related stocks requires a tolerance for larger week to week and month to month swings than you might be accustomed to.

06.22.11
Resource investing is about seeking opportunities along the entire supply chain, from the resource itself to the miners/growers, machinery suppliers, fabricators and distributors. For example, as a direct result of the current commodity boom, manufacturers of construction, mining and oil-producing equipment are enjoying record sales growth and profit margins. Higher agricultural commodities have been a windfall for U.S. farmers and farm equipment manufacturers. Accordingly, a savvy resource investor has the option to allocate capital to the three C’s: commodities themselves, resource-focused companies and/or countries. We will do all three.
05.15.11

The attempt to make the world safe for neo-colonial enterprises is now running into a snag. Governments in resource-rich countries are becoming more proactive with respect to resource management and local resource companies are getting more aggressive in their pricing strategies. This trend is nowhere more clear than in Brazil.

03.18.11
The Japanese, however, customarily expect and prepare for earthquakes. There is a national early warning system that gives about 15 seconds notice, enough time to shut off gas in cooking stoves and seek shelter under doorframes. This time, it was not enough. Although early estimates suggested that the cost in lives would be less than the previous large quake centered in Kobe in 1995 (6,400 deaths), that was excessively optimistic. The confirmed death toll is now nearly 6,000, and in one hard-hit town alone, nearly 10,000 are missing.
01.28.11

In January 1939, Isaac Asimov published I, Robot, the first of 10 science fiction stories about a misunderstood robot motivated by love and honor. In order to build sympathy for his positronic protagonists, Asimov formulated three human-friendly cardinal rules for robot behavior, including a no-harm prime directive: A robot may not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm.

Asimov’s high-minded, humanistic principles have been superseded. however, by the more mercenary mentality of modern times. One of our A-List holdings, iRobot, clearly named in honor of Asimov, is now a leader in military robotics. iRobot was upgraded a week ago, pushing the stock up 11% that day, but has since pulled back. It's a buy here. .

In this issue we will discuss some interesting developments in unmanned warfighting technology, but first, we will discuss the well-publicized tightening in the defense budget. 

Belt Tightening on the Beltway
Due to the telegraphed budget cuts in the defense department, we have been only lightly invested in military hardware providers. What we know now, however, is that the Defense Department may be tightening its belt, but ...

06.21.10

There is only one answer: The stealth devaluation of the dollar.

06.21.10

In SSIA we invest in areas related to the theme of Homeland Security. Of course, security is defined in different ways at different times. After 9/11 there was a surge in spending on airport screening devices, vehicle and cargo scanning, Internet security, infrastructure security and data security. If the company had a security angle, it was hot. That theme lasted 2-3 years.

06.21.10

Gold bugs will tell you that the yellow metal has been a store of value for millennia, but the truth is that over the last 15-20 years or so, most gold plays have not been particularly rewarding investments. The Philadelphia Gold Index (XAU) has appreciated just 20% since 1996, which would not even keep up with inflation.

06.21.10

One reason for all the curiosity and confusion is that gold has recently been promoted from the ‘commodity’ category to a monetary surrogate. This is odd considering that not a single country in the world is still on the gold standard. How do we know this has happened? The relative strength of gold is starting to significantly diverge from silver, the non-monetary precious metal. Silver peaked in value in March 2008 a little over $20/oz and is now trading about 20% less. Gold on the other hand, is trading 20% higher than its 2008 peak.

06.21.10

What happens in the aftermath of massive greed? Forced austerity. It has already been given a name by experienced observers of the global scene: the “New Normal.”

06.21.10

The fiscal crisis in Greece has caused a sharp decline in the eurozone currency. A few weeks ago, the eurozone nations and the IMF (supported by the U.S. Federal reserve) agreed to a $1 trillion bailout pac

04.15.10

The drug industry is vertically integrated in Afghanistan in another more insidious way, as it reaches to the top levels of government. Afghanistan is a country that, like Mexico, was once content to be the supplier in the drug trade, not a user. As a result of the war, however, drug use among citizens has doubled in the last five years and now affects 8% of the population. That figure is growing about 30% a year.
 

04.15.10

Summary: There are now almost 100,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan. The Taliban are on the verge of establishing the world’s first militant Islamic drug cartel, which is why the U.S. is planning to attack Kandahar, the spiritual home of the Taliban. The political and economic realities in the country, however, have compromised government support of this critical mission. The more the U.S. speaks out against corruption and drugs, the worse the situation gets.
 

04.15.10

The plot thickens when one considers the following. According to the United Nations, 98% of Afghanistan’s opium comes from seven provinces in the southwest. This area is Karzai’s power base, which is officially overseen by his brother. With the planned offensive against Kandahar slated to begin in June, the U.S. has put President Karzai in a bind, forcing him to choose between his loyalty to his brother and the hand that feeds him foreign aid.
 

04.15.10

The enormous cultural differences have made cooperation between Washington and Kabul a walk on a diplomatic tightrope stretched back into the Middle Ages. In the course of the last few months, every significant U.S. emissary sent to the country has slipped and fell into the abyss, including the Vice President, various ambassadors, special envoys and even U.N. officials. President Karzai has that effect on people. A two hour session of constructive criticism concerning the eradication of corruption leveled at Karzai by President Obama on March 28th produced nothing constructive.
 

04.15.10

The war on drugs is not working in America, Mexico or in Afghanistan. Although the Drug Enforcement Administration is proud that Afghan opium seizures were up over 900% in 2009, it appears that overall the impact was to reduce sales by about 20%. Richard Holbrooke, the U.S. special representative for Pakistan and Afghanistan, concluded last year that the antidrug efforts “did not result in any damage to the Taliban, but they put farmers out of work.”
 

04.15.10

Indeed, the major socio-economic impact of driving the Taliban out of power in 2001 has been a fifty fold increase in opium production in Afghanistan over the last decade. According to the U.N., 7% of the Afghan population was directly involved in opium cultivation in 2008. The country produced 6,900 tons of opium that year, which generated about $400 million for the farmers, who sell the crop at the farm gate to roving bands of armed purchasers. Criminal elements finance the harvest by giving farmers seed money in advance. Out of their meager income, which amounts to about $2000/per year per family, local farmers reportedly pay a 10% ‘protection fee’ to the Taliban. In other words, the Taliban operate like the Sopranos in New Jersey.